Oracle Primavera

Risk Analysis

Every project has risks

Full Lifecycle Risk Analytics Solution

Analyzing, Mitigating, and Managing Risk

What is Primavera Risk Analysis?

Risk Analysis is a full lifecycle risk analytics solution for Primavera and Microsoft Project. Integrating cost and schedule risk management, Pertmaster provides a comprehensive means of determining confidence levels for project success together with quick and easy techniques for determining contingency and risk response plans.

What does it provide?

Risk Analysis is a decision support tool for determining confidence levels regarding project cost and schedule success. Pertmaster provides an objective view of required contingency to account for cost and schedule uncertainty as well as analyzing the cost effectiveness of risk response plans. These combined form the basis of a ‘risk adjusted schedule’ which today is becoming the norm within the planning and scheduling process.

How does it work?

Risk Analysis directly integrates with both project schedules and cost estimates modeling risks and uncertainty. Projects are risk loaded through the likes of risk registers and quick risk templating before being analyzed through a Monte Carlo simulation. Confidence levels and risk spots can be easily identified through reports such as risk histograms, tornadoes and scatter plots before the resulting risk adjusted plans are optionally published back into the live schedule. The task of risk loading schedules and cost estimates is eased through the unique use of Templated Quick Risk and Risk Registers – providing a quick and repeatable process for risk loading both summary high level as well as detailed, complex project plans.

Features

Schedule check

Quickly determine your schedule maturity and risk readiness. Identify common scheduling pitfalls that may result in misleading schedule or risk analysis results. A sampling of checks includes: constraints, open ended tasks, out of sequence updates, negative lags, positive lags on finish to start links, start to finish links, and start milestones driving summary completion date. All tasks detailed in the report are flagged in the schedule making identification and resolution quick and easy.

Risk loading

Apply risks & uncertainties through the templated quick risk, risk register and a methodology-driven user interface.

Templated quick risk

Allows uncertainty risk distributions to be assigned to tasks based on a template approach. An advanced way of executing quick risk, these templates overcome the common challenge of accurately modeling task uncertainty.

Risk Register Wizard

With the Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Register Wizard, users can quickly create new risk registers, defining risk scoring criteria, entering qualitative risk assessments, and mapping risks to scheduled activities. Users can then gather quantitative assessments and more-detailed information in the resulting risk registers.

Risk register

Integrate pre-developed risk registers as well as define new risk registers directly within Pertmaster. Model both qualitatively and quantitatively positive and negative risk events (threats and opportunities) together with associated response plans such as mitigation. Automatically integrate identified risk events into the schedule by creating a risk event plan. These risk event plans can then be analyzed to determine both key risk drivers as well as the cost effectiveness of the identified mitigation strategies.

Risk register capabilities include:

• Custom definition of risk matrices and risk thresholds
• Re-use of register templates and risk breakdown structures
• Extensive integration with 3rd party risk registers including Excel
• Qualitative identification of risk events (probabilities and impacts)
• Risk response planning through mitigation plan scenarios
• Quantitative assessment of risk events against the schedule

Methodology-driven user interface

Real-time risk distribution overlays within the Gantt chart itself. A dockable ‘task details’ window and unlimited user-defined fields and codes closely align with Primavera and Microsoft Project. New view sheets provide a quick and easy means of modeling your risk workflow and methodologies.

Risk analysis

Primavera Risk Analysis address full lifecycle risk management through advanced Monte Carlo based cost and schedule analytics. The risk analysis is based on a scientific method using a number generator in a fixed number of iterations. There are 10 distribution types available: Triangular, Uniform, Normal, BetaPert, BetaPert modified, LogNormal, Discrete, Trigen, General/Custom. Model Risk Types include: Estimate Uncertainty, Task Existence, Probabilistic Branching, Fixed Cost Uncertainty, Variable Cost Uncertainty, Resource Uncertainty, Conditional Branching and Weather Modeling. Risk analysis can be conducted both at the project and portfolio level. Make strategic decisions about project selection through portfolio models as well traditional project level risk analysis against individual or linked schedules. 

Flexible Reporting

With Primavera Risk Analysis, users can view risk assessments in a variety of formats:

Distribution Graph

By using Primavera Risk Analysis distribution graphs users can:

  • Determine confidence levels, P-schedules and quick determination of contingency.
  • Report confidence levels with regards to finish dates, costs, float, Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value.
  • Drill down through the interactive report to identify confidence levels at multiple levels of the project including key milestones and stage gate review points.
  • Quickly tab between cost and schedule based views with the ability to drill down and filter by task/resource through the integrated tree control.

Tornado Graph

Identify key risk drivers. Find out what task or risk event is causing your schedule to not perform as expected. Alternatively, Cost Sensitivity reports isolate what tasks or risk events are the most critical. Interactive drill-down risk tornados enable quick and easy risk hot spot determination to report on key risk drivers.

Scatter plot

‘What if’ scenarios on cost and schedule changes. Determine the combined probability of achieving both given budgets and completion dates together. Play ‘what if…’ analysis by interactively varying cost and schedule thresholds to reveal the resultant chance of success.

Distribution Analyzer

  • Compare scenarios and determine the cost/benefit ratio of selected mitigation plans.
  • Overlay an unlimited number of cost/schedule risk distribution reports.
  • Directly send risk distributions from the risk histogram view into the distribution analyzer report for risk scenario comparison and analysis.
  • Simplified resource and cost modeling – standard and advanced cost modes enable quick and easy modeling of costs/resources while retaining optional advanced features.

Probabilistic cash flow

Critical for forecasting, long term budgeting, and EVMS reporting. In addition to reporting/overlay options such as percentile date shading, Pertmaster includes the ability to filter the probabilistic cash flow based upon specific resources/cost classes within the project plan. Cash flows can be generated for specific resource and cost types.

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